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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 19, 2009·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Boston Bruins 4, Atlanta Thrashers 3 (SO)

Away

Boston Bruins

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.

ATL winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BOS213113015011442
ATL07211114030335

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:59BOSMarco SturmAssists: Mark Recchi, Andrew Ference · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P1 18:11BOSMichael RyderAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dennis Wideman · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
  3. P2 9:20ATLNik AntropovAssists: Toby Enstrom, Ilya Kovalchuk · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P2 14:23ATLIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Maxim Afinogenov · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P2 16:45BOSMichael RyderPPAssists: David Krejci, Dennis Wideman · Snap, 0.18 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:18ATLMaxim AfinogenovAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Pavel Kubina · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. ATL Rich Peverley stopped
  2. 2. BOS Patrice Bergeron scored
  3. 3. ATL Vyacheslav Kozlov stopped
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 9:32BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P2 14:01BOSMark Recchi: High sticking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 14:49ATLRich Peverley: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P3 1:15BOSMarco Sturm: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 3:01ATLRich Peverley: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 3:21BOSMark Recchi: Interference2 min
  7. P3 4:19BOSMichael Ryder: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 11:46BOSBlake Wheeler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  9. P3 14:09BOSDennis Wideman: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Begin won the faceoff against Peverley
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSATL
42Shots on goal35
3.3Expected goals3.1
62Shot attempts61
34Faceoffs won29
2Power plays7
14Penalty minutes4
13Hits12
13Blocked shots13
2Giveaways9
12Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 3.1 xGBOS 3.3 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 94/100 · #62 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.54 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.

ATL winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).