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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 19, 2009·Honda Center, Anaheim

Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (OT)

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Anaheim Ducks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 55% of the time.

ANA winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
TBL09261900324
ANA261160411427

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:25ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P1 18:12ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Teemu Selanne, Corey Perry · Snap, 0.20 xG0–2
  3. P2 6:52ANABobby RyanPPAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Nick Boynton · Snap, 0.08 xG0–3
  4. P2 7:23TBLJeff HalpernAssists: Steve Downie, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
  5. P2 7:41TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Ryan Malone · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
  6. P3 1:38TBLMartin St. LouisPPAssists: Steve Downie, Ryan Malone · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
  7. OT 0:52ANAScott NiedermayerPPGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Teemu Selanne · Slap, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 3:50ANANick Boynton: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 4:22TBLMike Smith: Interference2 min
  3. P1 18:01TBLLukas Krajicek: Interference2 min · PPG
  4. P2 3:10TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min · PPG
  5. P2 3:10ANAMike Brown: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 4:37TBLDavid Hale: High sticking double minor4 min
  7. P2 11:23TBLAndrej Meszaros: High sticking2 min
  8. P2 14:49TBLKurtis Foster: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 19:59ANATodd Marchant: Tripping2 min · PPG
  10. P3 7:13ANAEvgeny Artyukhin: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 15:46ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
  12. OT 0:11TBLRyan Malone: Cross checking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nokelainen won the faceoff against Lecavalier
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLANA
24Shots on goal27
2.4Expected goals2.6
41Shot attempts49
30Faceoffs won25
4Power plays7
19Penalty minutes13
17Hits27
12Blocked shots10
6Giveaways6
5Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 2.6 xGTBL 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANATBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 88/100 · #127 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.78 · 7 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 44% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 55% of the time.

ANA winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).