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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 20, 2009·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Boston Bruins 2, Buffalo Sabres 1 (OT)

Away

Boston Bruins

2

Final

Overtime

Home

Buffalo Sabres

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.

BUF winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
BOS041140601225
BUF180301500126

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:20BUFPaul GaustadPPAssists: Jason Pominville, Chris Butler · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
  2. P2 10:54BOSMilan LucicAssists: Byron Bitz, Tuukka Rask · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 3:23BOSByron Bitz: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 6:45BUFMatt Ellis: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 12:45BUFClarke MacArthur: Interference2 min
  4. P1 17:43BOSDavid Krejci: Boarding2 min
  5. P2 5:43BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 7:47BUFToni Lydman: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kennedy won the faceoff against Begin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSBUF
25Shots on goal26
2.4Expected goals2.2
55Shot attempts49
22Faceoffs won30
4Power plays2
4Penalty minutes8
22Hits29
10Blocked shots13
14Giveaways18
4Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 2.2 xGBOS 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 21/100 · #961 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.08 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.

BUF winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).