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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 20, 2009·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Florida Panthers 2, Detroit Red Wings 1 (OT)

Away

Florida Panthers

2

Final

Overtime

Home

Detroit Red Wings

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 84% of the time.

DET winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
FLA020111512220
DET01111501400140

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 17:58DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Brian Rafalski · Backhand, 0.32 xG0–1
  2. P3 8:13FLAStephen WeissAssists: Nathan Horton, Michael Frolik · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
  3. OT 0:40FLABryan McCabeGWGAssists: Stephen Weiss, Nathan Horton · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 3:52FLADominic Moore: Holding2 min
  2. P1 12:48FLAKeith Ballard: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 16:59DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
  4. P2 8:24DETDrew Miller: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 11:12FLAVictor Oreskovich: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 15:50DETTodd Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min
  7. P2 16:33FLAStephen Weiss: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Moore
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLADET
20Shots on goal40
1.5Expected goals3.7
39Shot attempts76
25Faceoffs won23
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes6
23Hits39
13Blocked shots10
7Giveaways14
3Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 3.7 xGFLA 1.5 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 39/100 · #746 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.34 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 20% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 84% of the time.

DET winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).