Fri, Nov 20, 2009·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Islanders 2, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 012 | 212 | 05 | 229 |
| MIN | 18 | 013 | 28 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:44MINOwen NolanAssists: Eric Belanger, Nick Schultz · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 3:07NYIJon SimAssists: Trent Hunter, Bruno Gervais · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 10:23NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Jon Sim, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 6:58MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Andrew Brunette · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 18:53MINOwen NolanGWGAssists: Eric Belanger, James Sheppard · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (18)
- P1 1:59MINAntti Miettinen: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:35NYINate Thompson: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:35MINNathan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:01MINRobbie Earl: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:56NYITim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:56MINShane Hnidy: Instigator2 min
- P1 17:56MINShane Hnidy: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:56MINShane Hnidy: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 3:45NYIMark Streit: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:10NYISean Bergenheim: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:54MINAntti Miettinen: Holding2 min
- P2 12:48NYIBruno Gervais: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:26NYIMark Streit: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:33NYIAndrew MacDonald: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:33NYIJon Sim: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:33MINShane Hnidy: Holding2 min
- P3 8:56MINAntti Miettinen: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:59MINGreg Zanon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).