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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 20, 2009·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Colorado Avalanche 2, Vancouver Canucks 5

Away

Colorado Avalanche

2

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.

VAN winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL2100608224
VAN0121749528

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:06COLDavid JonesPPAssists: Wojtek Wolski, John-Michael Liles · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P1 8:39COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Wojtek Wolski · Tip-in, 0.33 xG2–0
  3. P2 4:22VANChristian EhrhoffPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Kyle Wellwood · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P3 5:12VANChristian EhrhoffAssists: Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
  5. P3 8:47VANHenrik SedinGWGAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Jannik Hansen · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
  6. P3 11:39VANSteve BernierPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Mikael Samuelsson · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–4
  7. P3 13:34VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Mathieu Schneider · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 3:28VANWillie Mitchell: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:37VANJannik Hansen: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 18:06COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 18:06VANTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 4:06COLDavid Koci: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 7:38VANRick Rypien: Misconduct10 min
  7. P2 9:29VANMikael Samuelsson: Interference2 min
  8. P2 0:00VANWillie Mitchell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  9. P3 9:35COLMilan Hejduk: Boarding2 min
  10. P3 11:27COLKyle Quincey: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  11. P3 18:16COLChris Stewart: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Stastny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLVAN
24Shots on goal28
2.8Expected goals1.8
47Shot attempts57
27Faceoffs won29
4Power plays4
13Penalty minutes23
15Hits16
15Blocked shots11
2Giveaways11
4Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 1.8 xGCOL 2.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 72/100 · #321 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.52 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 19% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.

VAN winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).