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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 20, 2009·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Philadelphia Flyers 3, San Jose Sharks 6

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.

SJS winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI18111110329
SJS11326310629

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:16PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Matt Carle, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.23 xG1–0
  2. P1 15:11SJSManny MalhotraPPAssists: Jason Demers, Ryane Clowe · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P2 0:50SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–2
  4. P2 11:24PHIClaude GirouxAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Oskars Bartulis · Backhand, 0.41 xG2–2
  5. P2 19:55SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
  6. P3 8:41SJSDany HeatleySHGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Derek Joslin · Tip-in, 0.23 xG2–4
  7. P3 9:32PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Chris Pronger, Mike Richards · Slap, 0.38 xG3–4
  8. P3 12:44SJSDany HeatleyPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Kent Huskins · Slap, 0.28 xG3–5
  9. P3 15:22SJSRyane CloweAssists: Manny Malhotra, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–6
Penalties (18)
  1. P1 8:26PHIBraydon Coburn: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  2. P1 8:26SJSRyane Clowe: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  3. P1 10:47PHIClaude Giroux: Interference2 min
  4. P1 13:41PHIJeff Carter: High sticking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 1:01PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 1:01SJSFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 2:30SJSJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 8:25SJSDerek Joslin: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 9:31SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 9:31PHIDaniel Brière: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 17:33PHIJeff Carter: High sticking2 min
  12. P3 7:23SJSDan Boyle: Hooking2 min
  13. P3 9:32SJSScott Nichol: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 9:32PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 9:32SJSKent Huskins: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 9:32PHIChris Pronger: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 12:36PHIIan Laperriere: High sticking2 min · PPG
  18. P3 16:46PHIDaniel Carcillo: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Pavelski
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHISJS
29Shots on goal29
2.6Expected goals3.9
49Shot attempts60
27Faceoffs won42
3Power plays5
26Penalty minutes22
26Hits25
19Blocked shots13
13Giveaways9
4Takeaways14

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 3.9 xGPHI 2.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 79/100 · #215 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.75 · 9 goals in reachComeback index 38% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.

SJS winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).