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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 21, 2009·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles

Calgary Flames 5, Los Angeles Kings 2

Away

Calgary Flames

5

Final

Home

Los Angeles Kings

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.

LAK winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY11217313532
LAK0821205225

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:13CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Olli Jokinen, Jamie Lundmark · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P2 3:22LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Sean O'Donnell · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:00LAKAlex FrolovAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–2
  4. P2 6:51CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
  5. P3 7:22CGYDaymond LangkowSHGWGAssists: Curtis Glencross · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
  6. P3 15:53CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Mark Giordano, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
  7. P3 19:14CGYDavid MossPPAssists: Robyn Regehr, Daymond Langkow · Tip-in, 0.16 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 8:14LAKWayne Simmonds: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  2. P1 8:14CGYCurtis Glencross: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  3. P1 12:12LAKJarret Stoll: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 14:05LAKJack Johnson: Boarding2 min
  5. P1 16:20CGYCurtis Glencross: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 5:09LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P2 6:34LAKMichal Handzus: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 18:55LAKRaitis Ivanans: Interference2 min
  9. P3 1:17LAKRandy Jones: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  10. P3 6:22CGYJarome Iginla: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 13:10CGYJarome Iginla: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 17:35LAKScott Parse: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Kopitar
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYLAK
32Shots on goal25
2.3Expected goals1.4
56Shot attempts40
28Faceoffs won33
7Power plays3
8Penalty minutes16
31Hits26
9Blocked shots11
6Giveaways11
4Takeaways1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 1.4 xGCGY 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 61/100 · #475 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.70 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.

LAK winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).