Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 21, 2009·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Washington Capitals 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (SO)

Away

Washington Capitals

1

Final

Shootout

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.

TOR winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
WSH110010010020132
TOR01111709021239

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:11WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Mike Green, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P2 16:49TORNiklas HagmanAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Jason Blake · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. TOR Phil Kessel scored
  2. 2. WSH Eric Fehr stopped
  3. 3. TOR John Mitchell stopped
  4. 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 5:48WSHTyler Sloan: Interference2 min
  2. P1 9:34TORJamal Mayers: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 12:53TORJason Blake: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P2 12:31TORLuke Schenn: Holding2 min
  5. P3 4:34TORNiklas Hagman: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 7:19WSHBrendan Morrison: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Stajan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHTOR
32Shots on goal39
3.1Expected goals3.4
57Shot attempts86
28Faceoffs won31
4Power plays2
4Penalty minutes8
24Hits18
24Blocked shots13
18Giveaways17
10Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 3.4 xGWSH 3.1 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 39/100 · #750 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.33 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 29% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.

TOR winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).