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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 21, 2009·Centre Bell, Montreal

Detroit Red Wings 3, Montréal Canadiens 2 (SO)

Away

Detroit Red Wings

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Montréal Canadiens

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.

MTL winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DET2160709022334
MTL030826010218

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:41DETBrad StuartPPAssists: Daniel Cleary, Brett Lebda · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:42DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Brian Rafalski, Nicklas Lidstrom · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
  3. P3 0:09MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Jaroslav Spacek · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P3 8:45MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. MTL Michael Cammalleri stopped
  2. 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
  3. 3. MTL Tomas Plekanec stopped
  4. 4. DET Henrik Zetterberg scored
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 8:52MTLGeorges Laraque: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  2. P1 8:52MTLGeorges Laraque: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 13:07MTLPaul Mara: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 15:10MTLTravis Moen: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 15:44MTLRyan O'Byrne: Slashing2 min
  6. P1 18:51DETJustin Abdelkader: Holding the stick2 min
  7. P3 10:56MTLMaxim Lapierre: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackMTL attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETMTL
34Shots on goal18
2.5Expected goals1.8
84Shot attempts43
32Faceoffs won29
7Power plays1
2Penalty minutes14
20Hits19
8Blocked shots29
15Giveaways23
5Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 1.8 xGDET 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 70/100 · #340 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.68 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.

MTL winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).