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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 21, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Buffalo Sabres 3, Ottawa Senators 5

Away

Buffalo Sabres

3

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.

OTT winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF11708216341
OTT0521437526

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:08BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Chris Butler, Tim Connolly · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–0
  2. P2 0:50OTTFilip KubaPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P2 8:14OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Filip Kuba, Chris Phillips · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P3 2:39OTTChris KellyAssists: Matt Carkner · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–3
  5. P3 6:11OTTMilan MichalekGWGAssists: Filip Kuba, Jason Spezza · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–4
  6. P3 8:00OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Mike Fisher, Filip Kuba · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
  7. P3 8:57BUFPatrick KaletaAssists: Henrik Tallinder, Derek Roy · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–5
  8. P3 10:30BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Derek Roy, Henrik Tallinder · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 1:50BUFCraig Rivet: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 13:14OTTPeter Regin: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 18:42OTTBrian Lee: Interference2 min · PPG
  4. P2 0:40BUFHenrik Tallinder: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 9:00OTTAlexandre Picard: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 11:47OTTChris Kelly: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 15:14BUFDerek Roy: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 16:08BUFJochen Hecht: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  9. P2 18:44BUFTim Kennedy: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 6:53BUFAdam Mair: Cross checking2 min
  11. P3 6:53OTTRyan Shannon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  12. P3 12:29OTTMatt Carkner: Boarding2 min
  13. P3 15:49OTTChris Neil: Slashing2 min
  14. P3 15:49OTTChris Neil: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Hecht won the faceoff against Fisher
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFOTT
41Shots on goal26
4.5Expected goals3.8
81Shot attempts51
21Faceoffs won38
7Power plays5
12Penalty minutes16
29Hits24
11Blocked shots22
4Giveaways5
11Takeaways15

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 3.8 xGBUF 4.5 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 69/100 · #355 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.18 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 36% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.

OTT winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).