Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 21, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh

Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Carolina Hurricanes 3

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

1

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.

CAR winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TBL190507121
CAR01021017327

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:18TBLMartin St. LouisPPAssists: Kurtis Foster, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
  2. P2 2:35CARTuomo RuutuPPAssists: Ray Whitney, Joni Pitkanen · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
  3. P2 13:46CARJussi JokinenGWGAssists: Joe Corvo, Chad LaRose · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–2
  4. P3 15:37CARChad LaRoseAssists: Sergei Samsonov · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 9:48CARAaron Ward: Holding2 min
  2. P1 14:30CARTom Kostopoulos: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P2 1:04TBLRyan Malone: Interference2 min · PPG
  4. P2 3:38CARChad LaRose: Holding2 min
  5. P2 6:38TBLKurtis Foster: Cross checking2 min
  6. P2 18:35CARErik Cole: Interference2 min
  7. P3 5:04TBLLukas Krajicek: Interference2 min
  8. P3 10:25TBLLukas Krajicek: Holding2 min
  9. P3 19:21TBLMartin St. Louis: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Sutter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLCAR
21Shots on goal27
2.4Expected goals3.6
50Shot attempts54
33Faceoffs won27
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
33Hits36
11Blocked shots17
2Giveaways8
7Takeaways16

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 3.6 xGTBL 2.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARTBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 30/100 · #865 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.14 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 35% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.

CAR winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).