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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 21, 2009·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Atlanta Thrashers 2

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.

ATL winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT19215010334
ATL0908216233

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:38PITMartin SkoulaPPAssists: Chris Bourque, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P2 7:34PITMartin SkoulaAssists: Matt Cooke, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
  3. P2 11:46PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Mike Rupp · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
  4. P3 9:40ATLChris ThorburnSHAssists: Zach Bogosian, Pavel Kubina · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–1
  5. P3 19:42ATLMaxim AfinogenovAssists: Nik Antropov, Rich Peverley · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 5:45ATLZach Bogosian: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 10:43PITSergei Gonchar: Kneeing2 min
  3. P2 7:57PITCraig Adams: Interference2 min
  4. P2 15:20PITChris Bourque: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 18:14PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 18:14ATLEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
  7. P3 6:52PITMatt Cooke: Fighting5 min
  8. P3 6:52ATLIlya Kovalchuk: Instigator face shield2 min
  9. P3 6:52ATLIlya Kovalchuk: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 6:52ATLIlya Kovalchuk: Misconduct10 min
  11. P3 6:52ATLIlya Kovalchuk: Instigator2 min
  12. P3 6:52ATLIlya Kovalchuk: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITATL
34Shots on goal33
2.6Expected goals1.4
60Shot attempts52
26Faceoffs won38
3Power plays3
16Penalty minutes31
17Hits19
12Blocked shots13
3Giveaways5
8Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 1.4 xGPIT 2.6 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 60/100 · #489 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.80 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.

ATL winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).