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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 21, 2009·American Airlines Center, Dallas

New Jersey Devils 3, Dallas Stars 5

Away

New Jersey Devils

3

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.

DAL winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD11111518334
DAL390928526

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:55NJDBrian RolstonAssists: Patrik Elias, Jamie Langenbrunner · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P1 2:22DALWarren PetersAssists: Stephane Robidas, Toby Petersen · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P1 7:59DALMike RibeiroPPAssists: Stephane Robidas, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–2
  4. P1 14:46DALStephane RobidasPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–3
  5. P2 9:49NJDBrian RolstonPPAssists: Patrik Elias, Tyler Eckford · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
  6. P3 6:31NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.25 xG3–3
  7. P3 9:07DALTom WandellGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Snap, 0.40 xG3–4
  8. P3 14:09DALStephane RobidasAssists: Loui Eriksson, Brad Richards · Slap, 0.05 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 3:10DALBrenden Morrow: Interference2 min
  2. P1 6:45NJDDavid Clarkson: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 12:55NJDTyler Eckford: Interference2 min · PPG
  4. P1 15:57DALKrys Barch: Holding2 min
  5. P2 6:20NJDTravis Zajac: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 8:42DALTrevor Daley: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P3 6:18DALJamie Benn: Holding2 min · PPG
  8. P3 15:31NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  9. P3 19:54DALKarlis Skrastins: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Modano
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDDAL
34Shots on goal26
1.7Expected goals3.0
56Shot attempts60
29Faceoffs won29
5Power plays4
8Penalty minutes10
39Hits62
23Blocked shots13
24Giveaways19
9Takeaways21

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.0 xGNJD 1.7 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 79/100 · #221 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.65 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.

DAL winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).