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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 21, 2009·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Chicago Blackhawks 5, Edmonton Oilers 2

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

5

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.

EDM winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI3911417530
EDM1907111227

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:50CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–0
  2. P1 4:25EDMSheldon SourayAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.53 xG1–1
  3. P1 7:20CHIKris VersteegAssists: Brent Sopel, Ben Eager · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–1
  4. P1 12:33CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
  5. P2 11:02CHIJohn MaddenAssists: Andrew Ladd, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–1
  6. P3 1:29EDMDustin PennerPPAssists: Steve Staios, Lubomir Visnovsky · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–2
  7. P3 8:53CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
  1. P2 3:15CHIBrent Seabrook: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 6:18EDMGilbert Brule: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 19:30CHIJonathan Toews: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  4. P3 8:35EDMEthan Moreau: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Madden
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIEDM
30Shots on goal27
3.2Expected goals3.1
60Shot attempts48
27Faceoffs won24
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
14Hits22
11Blocked shots18
6Giveaways14
7Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 3.1 xGCHI 3.2 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 52/100 · #578 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.04 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.

EDM winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).