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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 21, 2009·Honda Center, Anaheim

San Jose Sharks 3, Anaheim Ducks 2

Away

San Jose Sharks

3

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.

ANA winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS010212114336
ANA07212011230

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:20ANAJames WisniewskiPPAssists: Saku Koivu, Bobby Ryan · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P2 8:08SJSRyane CloweAssists: Kent Huskins, Ryan Vesce · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P2 10:54SJSDany HeatleyPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–1
  4. P2 19:46ANARyan WhitneyPPAssists: Corey Perry, Scott Niedermayer · Snap, 0.21 xG2–2
  5. P3 8:49SJSJoe ThorntonGWGAssists: Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 3:31ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 3:31SJSFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 17:41ANAJames Wisniewski: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 0:00SJSDany Heatley: Tripping2 min · PPG
  5. P2 4:21SJSBenn Ferriero: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 10:12ANARyan Whitney: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 18:55SJSKent Huskins: Holding2 min · PPG
  8. P2 19:37SJSDouglas Murray: Interference2 min
  9. P3 4:43ANASaku Koivu: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 4:43SJSScott Nichol: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 6:43ANATeemu Selanne: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nichol won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSANA
36Shots on goal30
3.1Expected goals2.6
54Shot attempts55
31Faceoffs won23
3Power plays4
15Penalty minutes13
20Hits19
13Blocked shots8
5Giveaways14
4Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 2.6 xGSJS 3.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANASJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 53/100 · #563 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.65 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.

ANA winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).