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Ice Lab

Sun, Nov 22, 2009·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Chicago Blackhawks 1, Vancouver Canucks 0

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

1

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 79% of the time.

VAN winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI060714117
VAN01207011030

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P3 1:12CHIBryan BickellGWGAssists: Brian Campbell, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 0:45CHIPatrick Sharp: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 4:27VANRick Rypien: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 4:27CHIBen Eager: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 13:04VANRyan Kesler: High sticking2 min
  5. P1 17:36CHIDustin Byfuglien: Holding2 min
  6. P1 17:36VANAlexandre Burrows: Cross checking2 min
  7. P1 17:36CHIAndrew Ladd: High sticking2 min
  8. P2 14:03CHIBen Eager: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 14:03VANSteve Bernier: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 12:33CHIBrian Campbell: High sticking2 min
  11. P3 12:33VANMason Raymond: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackVAN attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIVAN
17Shots on goal30
1.7Expected goals3.5
37Shot attempts64
17Faceoffs won26
1Power plays2
15Penalty minutes13
15Hits11
18Blocked shots9
5Giveaways9
5Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 3.5 xGCHI 1.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 6/100 · #1149 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.67 · 1 goal in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 79% of the time.

VAN winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).