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Ice Lab

Mon, Nov 23, 2009·Sommet Center, Nashville

Detroit Red Wings 1, Nashville Predators 3

Away

Detroit Red Wings

1

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 50% of the time.

NSH winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DET0916016131
NSH11111014325

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:24NSHJason ArnottPPAssists: Steve Sullivan, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:41NSHMartin EratGWGAssists: Joel Ward, David Legwand · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
  3. P2 6:38DETDrew MillerAssists: Daniel Cleary, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
  4. P3 17:40NSHMartin EratAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 9:45DETTodd Bertuzzi: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 16:37NSHCody Franson: Interference2 min
  3. P1 19:41DETTomas Holmstrom: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 7:12DETTomas Holmstrom: Closing hand on puck2 min
  5. P2 10:05NSHMartin Erat: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P2 13:51DETTodd Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Arnott
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETNSH
31Shots on goal25
2.9Expected goals2.8
70Shot attempts43
27Faceoffs won34
2Power plays4
8Penalty minutes4
16Hits20
10Blocked shots21
6Giveaways18
10Takeaways18

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 2.8 xGDET 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 17/100 · #1014 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.87 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 50% of the time.

NSH winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).