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Ice Lab

Mon, Nov 23, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Washington Capitals 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)

Away

Washington Capitals

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Ottawa Senators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.

OTT winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
WSH2151100300328
OTT180721814437

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:27OTTPeter ReginAssists: Jesse Winchester, Ryan Shannon · Tip-in, 0.21 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:19WSHChris ClarkAssists: Brian Pothier, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P1 19:30WSHBrendan MorrisonAssists: Mike Green, Eric Fehr · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
  4. P2 11:44WSHJay BeagleUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
  5. P3 3:18OTTChris NeilAssists: Filip Kuba · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
  6. P3 7:40OTTAlexandre PicardPPAssists: Filip Kuba, Milan Michalek · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
  7. OT 1:14OTTMike FisherGWGAssists: Chris Phillips, Filip Kuba · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 17:29OTTChris Kelly: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 3:12OTTChris Kelly: Cross checking2 min
  3. P3 6:34WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min · PPG
  4. P3 8:50WSHJohn Erskine: High sticking2 min
  5. P3 13:30OTTPeter Regin: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P3 16:52WSHChris Clark: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Perreault
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHOTT
28Shots on goal37
2.2Expected goals3.0
58Shot attempts63
24Faceoffs won36
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
23Hits24
17Blocked shots16
7Giveaways11
5Takeaways19

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 3.0 xGWSH 2.2 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 90/100 · #98 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.29 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 10% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.

OTT winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).