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Ice Lab

Mon, Nov 23, 2009·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Boston Bruins 4, St. Louis Blues 2

Away

Boston Bruins

4

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.

STL winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS162918423
STL11613012231

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:00BOSMark RecchiPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–0
  2. P1 12:31STLKeith TkachukAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, Erik Johnson · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 3:02BOSBlake WheelerPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Dennis Wideman · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
  4. P2 7:37STLCarlo ColaiacovoAssists: Brad Boyes, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
  5. P2 12:10BOSMilan LucicGWGAssists: Zdeno Chara, Patrice Bergeron · Deflected, 0.05 xG3–2
  6. P3 11:14BOSMarco SturmSHAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 9:21STLMike Weaver: High sticking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 17:15BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 2:37STLB.J. Crombeen: Interference2 min · PPG
  4. P2 7:22STLBarret Jackman: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 7:22BOSByron Bitz: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 12:52STLEric Brewer: Interference2 min
  7. P3 9:47BOSShawn Thornton: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 13:03BOSMarc Savard: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Tkachuk won the faceoff against Begin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSSTL
23Shots on goal31
2.5Expected goals2.7
42Shot attempts64
34Faceoffs won22
3Power plays3
11Penalty minutes11
15Hits23
19Blocked shots9
6Giveaways11
4Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.7 xGBOS 2.5 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 48/100 · #632 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.47 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.

STL winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).