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Ice Lab

Mon, Nov 23, 2009·Pepsi Center, Denver

Philadelphia Flyers 4, Colorado Avalanche 5

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

4

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.

COL winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI1718219434
COL21131604531

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:01COLDavid JonesAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P1 5:32COLPaul StastnyAssists: Kyle Cumiskey · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
  3. P1 19:26PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Braydon Coburn, Mike Richards · Slap, 0.45 xG1–2
  4. P2 0:29PHIJeff CarterAssists: Daniel Brière, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–2
  5. P2 6:03COLCody McLeodAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
  6. P2 9:06COLScott HannanAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
  7. P2 15:16COLDavid JonesGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, John-Michael Liles · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG2–5
  8. P3 11:17PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Scott Hartnell, Daniel Carcillo · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–5
  9. P3 15:21PHIJeff CarterPPAssists: Oskars Bartulis, Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.46 xG4–5
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 12:09PHIChris Pronger: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 2:29COLDavid Koci: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 3:15PHIDaniel Brière: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 12:46PHIIan Laperriere: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  5. P2 12:46COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 12:46PHIIan Laperriere: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 16:29COLMarek Svatos: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 16:29PHIClaude Giroux: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 8:42PHIDaniel Carcillo: Cross checking2 min
  10. P3 13:45COLDarcy Tucker: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  11. P3 17:51PHIScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  12. P3 19:56PHIJeff Carter: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Galiardi won the faceoff against Pyorala
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHICOL
34Shots on goal31
3.2Expected goals3.2
59Shot attempts44
31Faceoffs won30
2Power plays6
19Penalty minutes11
16Hits11
8Blocked shots13
9Giveaways8
10Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 3.2 xGPHI 3.2 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 82/100 · #190 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.42 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.

COL winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).