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Ice Lab

Mon, Nov 23, 2009·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Phoenix Coyotes 0, Edmonton Oilers 4

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

0

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.

EDM winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHX01308014035
EDM3111806425

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:59EDMEthan MoreauGWGAssists: Ryan Potulny, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:07EDMSheldon SourayAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Gilbert Brule · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
  3. P1 11:14EDMAles HemskyAssists: Dustin Penner · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–3
  4. P2 19:59EDMShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Sheldon Souray, Lubomir Visnovsky · Tip-in, 0.23 xG0–4
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 1:54EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 1:54PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 18:11PHXRobert Lang: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 0:25EDMSteve Staios: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 2:51PHXSami Lepisto: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 3:13EDMLubomir Visnovsky: Holding the stick2 min
  7. P2 6:26PHXRobert Lang: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 7:33PHXJim Vandermeer: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 16:41EDMPatrick O'Sullivan: High sticking2 min
  10. P2 18:53PHXMatthew Lombardi: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  11. P3 15:16PHXVernon Fiddler: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Brule won the faceoff against Lombardi
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXEDM
35Shots on goal25
2.4Expected goals2.2
75Shot attempts45
24Faceoffs won29
3Power plays6
17Penalty minutes11
12Hits15
14Blocked shots20
14Giveaways20
7Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.2 xGPHX 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1204 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.47 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.

EDM winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).