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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 25, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

Ottawa Senators 1, New Jersey Devils 3

Away

Ottawa Senators

1

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.

NJD winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT1805012125
NJD161817321

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:58NJDNiclas BergforsAssists: Andy Greene, Bryce Salvador · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:34OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Jesse Winchester, Ryan Shannon · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
  3. P2 18:34NJDPatrik EliasGWGAssists: Andy Greene, Jamie Langenbrunner · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:36NJDJamie LangenbrunnerENAssists: Zach Parise, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 14:33OTTNick Foligno: Holding2 min
  2. P2 0:18OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 0:18NJDDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 6:22NJDAndrew Peters: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 6:22OTTMatt Carkner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  6. P2 12:17OTTFilip Kuba: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 17:18OTTJarkko Ruutu: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00McAmmond won the faceoff against Kelly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTNJD
25Shots on goal21
2.7Expected goals2.3
36Shot attempts38
24Faceoffs won23
0Power plays3
10Penalty minutes4
20Hits22
11Blocked shots5
6Giveaways7
6Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.3 xGOTT 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 18/100 · #1001 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.91 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.

NJD winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).