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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 25, 2009·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Philadelphia Flyers 2, New York Islanders 1

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

2

Final

Home

New York Islanders

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.

NYI winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI0918111228
NYI11701101129

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:05NYITrent HunterPPAssists: John Tavares, Mark Streit · Slap, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P2 19:26PHIMike RichardsPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P3 14:33PHIScott HartnellGWGAssists: Jeff Carter · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 4:52PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min · PPG
  2. P1 4:52NYIBrendan Witt: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 6:53PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 17:33PHIChris Pronger: Cross checking2 min
  5. P1 19:50PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 19:50NYINate Thompson: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 2:48PHIDaniel Carcillo: Interference2 min
  8. P2 14:21PHIOskars Bartulis: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 18:03NYIBrendan Witt: Roughing2 min · PPG
  10. P2 19:43PHIJeff Carter: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHINYI
28Shots on goal29
3.1Expected goals2.8
50Shot attempts65
25Faceoffs won37
1Power plays5
20Penalty minutes12
21Hits23
23Blocked shots9
10Giveaways13
22Takeaways21

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 2.8 xGPHI 3.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYIPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 33/100 · #832 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.17 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 23% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +37 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.

NYI winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).