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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 25, 2009·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Atlanta Thrashers 2, Detroit Red Wings 0

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

2

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 60% of the time.

DET winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL1811007225
DET01906015040

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:02ATLNik AntropovGWGAssists: Maxim Afinogenov, Vyacheslav Kozlov · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
  2. P2 9:08ATLVyacheslav KozlovPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Todd White · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–0
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 11:45ATLNik Antropov: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 16:51ATLRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 2:25DETKris Draper: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 7:16DETBrett Lebda: Slashing2 min · PPG
  5. P2 11:53DETNicklas Lidstrom: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 17:36ATLRich Peverley: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 18:20DETDaniel Cleary: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Kovalchuk
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLDET
25Shots on goal40
2.6Expected goals2.1
39Shot attempts66
25Faceoffs won29
4Power plays3
6Penalty minutes8
23Hits25
15Blocked shots9
13Giveaways13
6Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 2.1 xGATL 2.6 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 9/100 · #1121 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.72 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 60% of the time.

DET winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).