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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 25, 2009·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Boston Bruins 2, Minnesota Wild 1 (SO)

Away

Boston Bruins

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Minnesota Wild

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 79% of the time.

MIN winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BOS120507022216
MIN0111706051129

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:50BOSByron BitzAssists: Derek Morris, Marc Savard · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
  2. P2 10:23MINAndrew EbbettPPAssists: Kyle Brodziak, James Sheppard · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. BOS Patrice Bergeron scored
  2. 2. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
  3. 3. BOS Blake Wheeler stopped
  4. 4. MIN Marek Zidlicky stopped
  5. 5. BOS Marc Savard stopped
  6. 6. MIN Eric Belanger stopped
  7. 7. BOS David Krejci scored
  8. 8. MIN Chuck Kobasew stopped
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 0:58BOSMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 9:37MINJohn Scott: Interference2 min
  3. P1 15:53BOSTuukka Rask: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 19:38BOSDerek Morris: Holding2 min
  5. P2 1:47MINCal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min
  6. P2 8:27BOSBlake Wheeler: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P2 11:13BOSShawn Thornton: Too many men on the ice2 min
  8. P2 13:12MINCal Clutterbuck: Charging2 min
  9. P3 18:19MINKyle Brodziak: Cross checking2 min
  10. OT 3:12BOSDennis Wideman: High sticking double minor4 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Begin won the faceoff against Brodziak
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSMIN
16Shots on goal29
1.1Expected goals2.5
52Shot attempts62
25Faceoffs won28
4Power plays6
14Penalty minutes8
18Hits23
13Blocked shots23
4Giveaways8
3Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 2.5 xGBOS 1.1 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 46/100 · #662 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.47 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 79% of the time.

MIN winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).