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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 25, 2009·Pepsi Center, Denver

Nashville Predators 4, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)

Away

Nashville Predators

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Colorado Avalanche

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.

COL winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
NSH210170614427
COL033130600322

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:00NSHJ-P DumontPPAssists: Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
  2. P1 10:52NSHMarcel GocAssists: Martin Erat, Jordin Tootoo · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
  3. P2 3:39COLRyan WilsonAssists: Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
  4. P2 11:12COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: David Jones, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
  5. P2 14:35COLMarek SvatosAssists: Chris Stewart, Brett Clark · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
  6. P2 18:07NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Jason Arnott, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
  7. OT 3:07NSHJason ArnottGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 2:11COLBrett Clark: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 16:45COLDavid Koci: Interference2 min
  3. P1 19:34NSHMarcel Goc: Cross checking2 min
  4. P2 8:32NSHMartin Erat: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  5. P2 15:15NSHDan Hamhuis: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 16:50COLMarek Svatos: Interference2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Duchene
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHCOL
27Shots on goal22
2.1Expected goals2.0
57Shot attempts42
26Faceoffs won26
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes6
11Hits18
7Blocked shots17
3Giveaways9
8Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 2.0 xGNSH 2.1 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 78/100 · #230 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.86 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 23% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.

COL winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).