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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 25, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Phoenix Coyotes 1, Calgary Flames 2

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

1

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.

CGY winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHX01104113128
CGY0711118226

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 17:20CGYDaymond LangkowAssists: Curtis Glencross, Eric Nystrom · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P3 10:30PHXKeith YandlePPAssists: David Schlemko, Robert Lang · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P3 14:16CGYNigel DawesGWGAssists: David Moss, Daymond Langkow · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 11:40CGYBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 11:40PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 12:46CGYMark Giordano: Holding the stick2 min
  4. P1 14:49CGYRobyn Regehr: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 10:14PHXDavid Schlemko: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 8:32CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lang won the faceoff against Conroy
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXCGY
28Shots on goal26
1.4Expected goals1.9
58Shot attempts62
29Faceoffs won22
3Power plays1
7Penalty minutes11
11Hits16
21Blocked shots15
7Giveaways21
13Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 1.9 xGPHX 1.4 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 37/100 · #774 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.28 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.

CGY winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).