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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 25, 2009·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Los Angeles Kings 3, Edmonton Oilers 1

Away

Los Angeles Kings

3

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.

EDM winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
LAK012113210335
EDM180708123

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:37EDMRyan PotulnyAssists: Sheldon Souray, Ethan Moreau · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P2 6:38LAKWayne SimmondsAssists: Randy Jones, Scott Parse · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P3 15:32LAKMatt GreeneGWGAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Sean O'Donnell · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P3 19:40LAKAlex FrolovENAssists: Dustin Brown, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.70 xG3–1
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 10:33EDMSheldon Souray: Cross checking2 min
  2. P2 4:47EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 4:47LAKSean O'Donnell: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 8:13LAKMichal Handzus: Boarding2 min
  5. P2 12:46EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 12:57LAKAlex Frolov: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 17:28EDMPatrick O'Sullivan: Interference2 min
  8. P2 19:13LAKMichal Handzus: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 19:13EDMSheldon Souray: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 19:44LAKRandy Jones: Cross checking2 min
  11. P3 8:57LAKWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
  12. P3 8:57EDMAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
  13. P3 11:19LAKWayne Simmonds: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Brule won the faceoff against Kopitar
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKEDM
35Shots on goal23
3.4Expected goals2.7
67Shot attempts52
22Faceoffs won31
3Power plays4
17Penalty minutes15
20Hits24
15Blocked shots17
23Giveaways28
8Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.7 xGLAK 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 37/100 · #778 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.27 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +38 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.

EDM winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).