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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 25, 2009·Honda Center, Anaheim

Carolina Hurricanes 2, Anaheim Ducks 3

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

2

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.

ANA winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR1601519230
ANA01218213333

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:23CARTom KostopoulosAssists: Matt Cullen, Joni Pitkanen · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P2 19:11ANAScott NiedermayerPPAssists: Teemu Selanne, Corey Perry · Slap, 0.15 xG1–1
  3. P3 12:43ANAPetteri NokelainenAssists: Kyle Calder, Todd Marchant · Slap, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P3 18:28ANATeemu SelanneGWGAssists: Saku Koivu, Evgeny Artyukhin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
  5. P3 19:07CARBrandon SutterAssists: Eric Staal, Jussi Jokinen · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 4:57ANAKyle Calder: Interference2 min
  2. P2 2:11ANASteve Eminger: Holding2 min
  3. P2 6:28CARNiclas Wallin: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 13:05ANAKyle Calder: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 18:37CAREric Staal: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Sutter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARANA
30Shots on goal33
3.7Expected goals3.2
53Shot attempts58
25Faceoffs won30
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
25Hits14
11Blocked shots9
5Giveaways9
5Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 3.2 xGCAR 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANACAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 37/100 · #785 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.23 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 28% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.

ANA winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).