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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 25, 2009·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Chicago Blackhawks 7, San Jose Sharks 2

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

7

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 54% of the time.

SJS winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI18321312741
SJS0506213224

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:45CHITroy BrouwerSHAssists: Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P2 4:57CHIMarian HossaSHAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
  3. P2 5:25CHIPatrick SharpSHGWGAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
  4. P2 10:38CHIDustin ByfuglienAssists: Cam Barker, Patrick Sharp · Slap, 0.47 xG4–0
  5. P3 5:19CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Duncan Keith, Troy Brouwer · Slap, 0.03 xG5–0
  6. P3 6:19CHIMarian HossaAssists: Brent Sopel, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.14 xG6–0
  7. P3 11:38CHIJohn MaddenAssists: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.10 xG7–0
  8. P3 16:17SJSDan BoylePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley · Slap, 0.08 xG7–1
  9. P3 17:50SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Ryane Clowe, Kent Huskins · Wrist, 0.05 xG7–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 16:51CHIBrent Seabrook: Holding2 min
  2. P2 4:09CHITroy Brouwer: Boarding2 min
  3. P2 11:43SJSRyane Clowe: Elbowing2 min
  4. P2 15:42SJSScott Nichol: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 18:32CHICam Barker: Interference2 min
  6. P3 1:36CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Closing hand on puck2 min
  7. P3 14:40CHICam Barker: Hooking2 min · PPG
  8. P3 15:03CHIBrent Sopel: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Nichol
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHISJS
41Shots on goal24
3.2Expected goals3.4
63Shot attempts55
27Faceoffs won34
2Power plays6
12Penalty minutes4
17Hits26
16Blocked shots11
4Giveaways10
10Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 3.4 xGCHI 3.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 60/100 · #495 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.64 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 54% of the time.

SJS winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).