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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 26, 2009·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Los Angeles Kings 1, Vancouver Canucks 4

Away

Los Angeles Kings

1

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 87% of the time.

VAN winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
LAK09111012132
VAN11009315434

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:35VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P2 19:17LAKWayne SimmondsAssists: Scott Parse, Randy Jones · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P3 3:54VANHenrik SedinGWGAssists: Alexander Edler · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–2
  4. P3 7:18VANTanner GlassAssists: Steve Bernier, Kyle Wellwood · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–3
  5. P3 19:54VANKyle WellwoodENUnassisted · Slap, 0.69 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 8:00LAKRandy Jones: Holding2 min
  2. P1 8:17VANMikael Samuelsson: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 8:17LAKMatt Greene: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 12:14LAKScott Parse: Hooking2 min
  5. P1 16:39VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
  6. P1 19:38LAKAlex Frolov: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 8:32LAKRaitis Ivanans: Interference2 min
  8. P2 9:35VANRyan Kesler: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 11:33VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
  10. P2 15:19VANMathieu Schneider: Interference2 min
  11. P2 16:53LAKMichal Handzus: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Kopitar
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKVAN
32Shots on goal34
2.4Expected goals5.2
61Shot attempts69
24Faceoffs won41
4Power plays5
12Penalty minutes10
22Hits16
16Blocked shots20
7Giveaways6
10Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 5.2 xGLAK 2.4 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 34/100 · #814 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.15 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 87% of the time.

VAN winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).