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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 27, 2009·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Buffalo Sabres 4, Philadelphia Flyers 2

Away

Buffalo Sabres

4

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.

PHI winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF1611029425
PHI21008015233

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:19BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Tim Connolly, Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–0
  2. P1 19:26PHIMike RichardsAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Jeff Carter · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–1
  3. P1 19:56PHIBraydon CoburnAssists: Arron Asham, Mika Pyorala · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P2 6:09BUFPaul GaustadPPAssists: Tim Connolly, Chris Butler · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–2
  5. P3 5:27BUFTim ConnollyGWGAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
  6. P3 10:52BUFTim ConnollyAssists: Drew Stafford, Steve Montador · Wrist, 0.52 xG4–2
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 2:05BUFJason Pominville: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 9:28BUFPatrick Kaleta: Boarding5 min
  3. P1 9:28BUFPatrick Kaleta: Game misconduct10 min
  4. P1 9:28PHIRiley Cote: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 16:59PHIMike Richards: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 0:18PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 0:18BUFCraig Rivet: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 1:41PHIMika Pyorala: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 1:55BUFDrew Stafford: Holding the stick2 min
  10. P2 5:39PHIOskars Bartulis: Holding2 min · PPG
  11. P2 9:20PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
  12. P2 9:20PHIDaniel Carcillo: Misconduct10 min
  13. P2 9:20BUFCraig Rivet: Fighting5 min
  14. P2 0:00BUFMike Grier: Roughing2 min
  15. P2 0:00PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 6:10BUFToni Lydman: Slashing2 min
  17. P3 11:16BUFChris Butler: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Pyorala
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFPHI
25Shots on goal33
3.0Expected goals3.3
41Shot attempts57
38Faceoffs won27
3Power plays5
35Penalty minutes30
12Hits17
12Blocked shots8
11Giveaways6
8Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 3.3 xGBUF 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 48/100 · #631 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.48 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.

PHI winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).