Fri, Nov 27, 2009·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 3, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 215 | 08 | 334 |
| MIN | 19 | 211 | 212 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:58COLKyle QuinceyAssists: Matt Duchene, Craig Anderson · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 9:28MINOwen NolanAssists: Greg Zanon · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 2:48MINChuck KobasewAssists: Derek Boogaard · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 4:41COLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Chris Stewart, John-Michael Liles · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 6:00MINChuck KobasewPPAssists: Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 17:36COLChris StewartAssists: Wojtek Wolski · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 11:02MINAndrew BrunettePPGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 19:42MINChuck KobasewENAssists: Mikko Koivu, Greg Zanon · Backhand, 0.71 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:03COLDavid Koci: Charging2 min
- P1 9:10MINChuck Kobasew: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:32MINRobbie Earl: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:58COLMarek Svatos: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:27MINKim Johnsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:15COLRyan Wilson: Holding2 min
- P3 7:51MINMarek Zidlicky: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:10COLDarcy Tucker: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).