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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 27, 2009·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

New York Rangers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5

Away

New York Rangers

1

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.

TBL winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYR090919127
TBL21221019531

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:54TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 19:24TBLKurtis FosterPPGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P2 8:05TBLSteve DowniePPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–3
  4. P2 12:25TBLPaul SzczechuraAssists: James Wright, Matt Walker · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
  5. P3 8:24TBLKurtis FosterAssists: Zenon Konopka · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–5
  6. P3 17:53NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Artem Anisimov, Marc Staal · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (21)
  1. P1 3:24TBLVincent Lecavalier: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 3:24TBLVincent Lecavalier: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 3:24NYRSean Avery: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 16:22TBLPaul Szczechura: Tripping2 min
  5. P1 17:32NYRAles Kotalik: Charging2 min · PPG
  6. P1 0:00NYRSean Avery: High sticking2 min
  7. P1 0:00TBLDavid Hale: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 6:28NYRArtem Anisimov: High sticking2 min · PPG
  9. P2 12:49NYRBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 12:49TBLMatt Walker: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 12:08NYRBrian Boyle: Boarding2 min
  12. P3 12:08NYRBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 12:08TBLZenon Konopka: Instigator2 min
  14. P3 12:08TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 12:08TBLZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
  16. P3 14:15TBLSteven Stamkos: Holding2 min
  17. P3 14:15TBLMatt Walker: Roughing2 min
  18. P3 14:15NYRDonald Brashear: Roughing2 min
  19. P3 14:15NYRDonald Brashear: Roughing2 min
  20. P3 14:15TBLMatt Walker: Misconduct10 min
  21. P3 14:15NYRDonald Brashear: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Prospal won the faceoff against Stamkos
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRTBL
27Shots on goal31
1.7Expected goals2.1
57Shot attempts51
27Faceoffs won38
3Power plays2
34Penalty minutes44
15Hits13
14Blocked shots18
8Giveaways7
3Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.1 xGNYR 1.7 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1062 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.51 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.

TBL winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).