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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 27, 2009·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Florida Panthers 4

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

6

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.

FLA winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR1152939633
FLA21217111430

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:11FLARadek DvorakAssists: Rostislav Olesz, Steve Reinprecht · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 2:04FLAMichael FrolikPPAssists: Stephen Weiss, Bryan McCabe · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P1 12:17TORPhil KesselAssists: Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P2 2:30TORNiklas HagmanAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Mikhail Grabovski · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
  5. P2 8:11FLADmitry KulikovAssists: Nathan Horton, Dennis Seidenberg · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
  6. P2 14:33TORAlexei PonikarovskyPPAssists: Ian White, Tomas Kaberle · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
  7. P3 4:07FLADmitry KulikovPPAssists: Steve Reinprecht, Dennis Seidenberg · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
  8. P3 4:20TORPhil KesselAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
  9. P3 12:26TORNiklas HagmanGWGAssists: Christian Hanson · Backhand, 0.07 xG5–4
  10. P3 19:56TORMatt StajanENAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky · Wrist, 0.58 xG6–4
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 1:38TORGarnet Exelby: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 11:12TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 11:12FLASteve MacIntyre: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 0:25FLANathan Horton: Holding2 min
  5. P2 9:05FLANathan Horton: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 10:38FLABryan Allen: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 13:20FLADennis Seidenberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  8. P2 15:13TORFrancois Beauchemin: Interference2 min
  9. P3 2:14TORWayne Primeau: Hooking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 6:40TORNiklas Hagman: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 18:20FLAStephen Weiss: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Weiss
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORFLA
33Shots on goal30
2.3Expected goals3.1
61Shot attempts65
33Faceoffs won33
5Power plays4
13Penalty minutes15
16Hits15
16Blocked shots20
3Giveaways7
3Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 3.1 xGTOR 2.3 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLATOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 97/100 · #26 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.38 · 10 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 17% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +34 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.

FLA winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).