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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 27, 2009·Rexall Place, Edmonton

San Jose Sharks 5, Edmonton Oilers 4 (SO)

Away

San Jose Sharks

5

Final

Shootout

Home

Edmonton Oilers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.

EDM winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
SJS1901237030531
EDM01017314020433

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:23SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P2 11:03EDMRyan PotulnyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
  3. P3 2:07EDMDustin PennerAssists: Gilbert Brule · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–2
  4. P3 4:09EDMGilbert BruleAssists: Dustin Penner, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
  5. P3 5:55SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle · Tip-in, 0.32 xG2–3
  6. P3 8:28SJSRyane CloweAssists: Patrick Marleau, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
  7. P3 14:57EDMRyan PotulnyAssists: Ladislav Smid, Ethan Moreau · Snap, 0.09 xG3–4
  8. P3 18:34SJSPatrick MarleauSHAssists: Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. EDM Patrick O'Sullivan stopped
  2. 2. SJS Patrick Marleau stopped
  3. 3. EDM Sam Gagner stopped
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 3:13EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 3:13SJSFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 3:13SJSRyane Clowe: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 3:13EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 6:48EDMSheldon Souray: Cross checking2 min
  6. P1 14:21SJSJason Demers: Holding2 min
  7. P1 19:56SJSJed Ortmeyer: Roughing2 min
  8. P1 19:56EDMRyan Potulny: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 12:50EDMLadislav Smid: Hooking2 min
  10. P2 16:44SJSScott Nichol: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 18:20SJSKent Huskins: Holding the stick2 min
  12. OT 2:34EDMSheldon Souray: High sticking2 min
  13. OT 2:53SJSJoe Pavelski: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nichol won the faceoff against Gagner
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSEDM
31Shots on goal33
3.7Expected goals3.1
61Shot attempts63
31Faceoffs won32
3Power plays4
17Penalty minutes15
16Hits22
11Blocked shots13
13Giveaways20
5Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 3.1 xGSJS 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 97/100 · #17 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.88 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 4% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.

EDM winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).