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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 27, 2009·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

Dallas Stars 2, Phoenix Coyotes 5

Away

Dallas Stars

2

Final

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.

PHX winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL01109212232
PHX17312110529

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:01PHXRobert LangAssists: David Schlemko, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P2 4:15PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Scottie Upshall, Matthew Lombardi · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
  3. P2 15:45PHXLauri KorpikoskiGWGAssists: Scottie Upshall, Matthew Lombardi · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
  4. P2 16:11PHXAdrian AucoinAssists: Matthew Lombardi, Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–4
  5. P3 1:52PHXZbynek MichalekAssists: Shane Doan, Vernon Fiddler · Slap, 0.03 xG0–5
  6. P3 5:26DALBrenden MorrowPPAssists: Tom Wandell, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–5
  7. P3 7:18DALMike RibeiroUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 5:41PHXScottie Upshall: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 11:46PHXMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 16:03PHXRobert Lang: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 16:49DALSteve Ott: Interference2 min
  5. P2 8:18PHXMatthew Lombardi: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 8:59DALMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 4:35PHXScottie Upshall: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lombardi won the faceoff against Modano
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALPHX
32Shots on goal29
2.5Expected goals2.9
50Shot attempts49
27Faceoffs won24
5Power plays2
4Penalty minutes10
24Hits16
11Blocked shots8
1Giveaways1
2Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 2.9 xGDAL 2.5 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 60/100 · #498 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.59 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.

PHX winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).