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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 28, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

New York Islanders 1, New Jersey Devils 6

Away

New York Islanders

1

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.

NJD winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYI1701204123
NJD010216315641

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:18NYIRichard ParkAssists: Tim Jackman, Sean Bergenheim · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P2 0:54NJDMike MottauAssists: Patrik Elias · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–1
  3. P2 12:06NJDBrian RolstonPPGWGAssists: Patrik Elias, Jamie Langenbrunner · Snap, 0.24 xG1–2
  4. P3 10:30NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Brian Rolston, Travis Zajac · Slap, 0.09 xG1–3
  5. P3 11:54NJDZach PariseAssists: Andy Greene, Jamie Langenbrunner · Snap, 0.43 xG1–4
  6. P3 12:32NJDBrian RolstonAssists: Mike Mottau, Niclas Bergfors · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 11:03NJDRod Pelley: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 11:03NYINate Thompson: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 15:44NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 18:05NJDMike Mottau: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 11:45NYIJack Hillen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 15:31NJDMatthew Corrente: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 15:31NYITim Jackman: Fighting5 min
  8. P3 6:30NJDPatrik Elias: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 9:19NYIJack Hillen: Holding2 min · PPG
  10. P3 9:30NYIRichard Park: Holding2 min
  11. P3 13:44NJDMark Fraser: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackNJD attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYINJD
23Shots on goal41
1.8Expected goals3.6
36Shot attempts55
32Faceoffs won25
4Power plays3
16Penalty minutes18
14Hits23
5Blocked shots6
3Giveaways7
10Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 3.6 xGNYI 1.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDNYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 29/100 · #876 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.00 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 36% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.

NJD winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).