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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 28, 2009·TD Garden, Boston

Ottawa Senators 3, Boston Bruins 4 (SO)

Away

Ottawa Senators

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Boston Bruins

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.

BOS winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
OTT250816030322
BOS0102919051433

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:52OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Milan Michalek · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P1 7:22OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Alexandre Picard · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
  3. P2 0:59BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Mark Recchi, Dennis Wideman · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
  4. P2 9:57BOSMichael RyderPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, Marc Savard · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
  5. P3 9:19BOSDennis WidemanPPAssists: David Krejci, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:40OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Alexandre Picard, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
  2. 2. OTT Alex Kovalev stopped
  3. 3. BOS Blake Wheeler stopped
  4. 4. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
  5. 5. BOS David Krejci stopped
  6. 6. OTT Daniel Alfredsson stopped
  7. 7. BOS Michael Ryder scored
  8. 8. OTT Mike Fisher stopped
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 7:03BOSMarc Savard: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 11:37OTTJarkko Ruutu: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 13:41BOSDavid Krejci: Holding2 min
  4. P2 0:41OTTNick Foligno: Tripping2 min · PPG
  5. P2 8:13OTTChris Kelly: Hooking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 11:52BOSMarco Sturm: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 15:08OTTChris Phillips: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 8:03OTTAlex Kovalev: Interference2 min · PPG
  9. P3 16:54BOSMark Recchi: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Savard won the faceoff against Fisher
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTBOS
22Shots on goal33
1.1Expected goals3.3
38Shot attempts59
23Faceoffs won27
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
17Hits35
14Blocked shots13
1Giveaways3
1Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 3.3 xGOTT 1.1 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 92/100 · #72 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.44 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 20% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.

BOS winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).