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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 28, 2009·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Carolina Hurricanes 1, Buffalo Sabres 5

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

1

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 62% of the time.

BUF winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR1901507131
BUF070859524

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:19CARMatt CullenUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P3 1:59BUFMike GrierAssists: Chris Butler, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
  3. P3 4:33BUFClarke MacArthurPPGWGAssists: Derek Roy, Tyler Myers · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
  4. P3 8:10BUFDerek RoyAssists: Jason Pominville, Jochen Hecht · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–3
  5. P3 11:22BUFJochen HechtPPAssists: Tyler Myers, Andrej Sekera · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–4
  6. P3 14:37BUFThomas VanekAssists: Tyler Myers, Tim Kennedy · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 6:10CARRod Brind'Amour: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 18:54BUFDrew Stafford: High sticking2 min
  3. P2 3:21CARSergei Samsonov: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 6:42BUFAdam Mair: Charging2 min
  5. P2 10:25BUFClarke MacArthur: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 11:39BUFDerek Roy: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 16:46CARAaron Ward: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 2:55CARSergei Samsonov: Tripping2 min · PPG
  9. P3 10:04CARTim Gleason: Roughing2 min · PPG
  10. P3 18:48BUFNathan Paetsch: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00MacArthur won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARBUF
31Shots on goal24
3.3Expected goals4.1
66Shot attempts52
31Faceoffs won27
5Power plays5
10Penalty minutes10
19Hits8
11Blocked shots23
12Giveaways16
3Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 4.1 xGCAR 3.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 39/100 · #755 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.31 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 62% of the time.

BUF winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).