Sat, Nov 28, 2009·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 24 | 07 | 19 | 03 | 1 | 423 |
| MTL | 07 | 29 | 16 | 02 | 0 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:47WSHEric FehrAssists: Karl Alzner, Brooks Laich · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 9:59WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alexandre Giroux · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 5:40MTLJaroslav SpacekPPAssists: Roman Hamrlik, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 13:50MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Roman Hamrlik, Jaroslav Spacek · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 5:34MTLTravis MoenPPAssists: Marc-Andre Bergeron, Michael Cammalleri · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 19:48WSHEric FehrPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Tomas Fleischmann · Backhand, 0.32 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MTL Michael Cammalleri stopped
- 2. WSH Tomas Fleischmann stopped
- 3. MTL Maxim Lapierre stopped
- 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 5. MTL Tomas Plekanec stopped
- 6. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:07MTLMax Pacioretty: Holding2 min
- P1 11:51WSHAlexandre Giroux: Interference2 min
- P2 3:44WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:17WSHAlexandre Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:01WSHBrooks Laich: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:33MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:44MTLPaul Mara: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Perreault won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).