Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 28, 2009·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Philadelphia Flyers 0, Atlanta Thrashers 1

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

0

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.

ATL winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI01209013034
ATL0311203118

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 11:07ATLRich PeverleyPPGWGAssists: Pavel Kubina, Maxim Afinogenov · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 2:09PHIRiley Cote: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:09ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 5:03PHIBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 13:15ATLJohan Hedberg: Tripping2 min
  5. P1 16:03ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Interference2 min
  6. P2 9:07PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min · PPG
  7. P2 10:58PHIRyan Parent: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 12:35PHIBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min
  9. P3 0:12ATLColby Armstrong: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 0:12ATLColby Armstrong: Charging5 min
  11. P3 0:12ATLColby Armstrong: Game misconduct10 min
  12. P3 0:12PHIArron Asham: Instigator2 min
  13. P3 0:12PHIArron Asham: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 0:12PHIArron Asham: Misconduct10 min
  15. P3 11:11ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Tripping2 min
  16. P3 11:11PHIMike Richards: Holding2 min
  17. P3 14:35ATLChristoph Schubert: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Peverley
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIATL
34Shots on goal18
2.0Expected goals1.0
56Shot attempts41
28Faceoffs won31
4Power plays4
32Penalty minutes33
15Hits15
14Blocked shots13
5Giveaways10
10Takeaways17

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 1.0 xGPHI 2.0 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 10/100 · #1109 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.75 · 1 goal in reachComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.

ATL winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).