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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 28, 2009·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Calgary Flames 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (SO)

Away

Calgary Flames

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.

CBJ winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CGY01011127043432
CBJ05314010032332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 5:29CGYOlli JokinenPPAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.52 xG1–0
  2. P2 13:20CBJRick NashPPAssists: Kristian Huselius, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P2 14:23CBJMarc MethotAssists: Kristian Huselius, Mike Commodore · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P2 19:32CBJJared BollAssists: Derick Brassard, Rostislav Klesla · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
  5. P3 14:13CGYDustin BoydAssists: Olli Jokinen, Jarome Iginla · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–3
  6. P3 15:32CGYNigel DawesAssists: David Moss, Daymond Langkow · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. CBJ Kristian Huselius scored
  2. 2. CGY Nigel Dawes scored
  3. 3. CBJ Rick Nash scored
  4. 4. CGY Olli Jokinen scored
  5. 5. CBJ Fedor Tyutin stopped
  6. 6. CGY Jarome Iginla stopped
  7. 7. CBJ Anton Stralman stopped
  8. 8. CGY Jamie Lundmark scored
Penalties (5)
  1. P2 0:32CBJRick Nash: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 2:04CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
  3. P2 4:39CBJKristian Huselius: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P2 12:14CGYDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 17:24CBJJared Boll: Interference goalkeeper2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Jokinen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYCBJ
32Shots on goal32
3.1Expected goals2.6
65Shot attempts51
27Faceoffs won35
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
38Hits41
8Blocked shots14
4Giveaways6
1Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.6 xGCGY 3.1 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 81/100 · #202 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.03 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 3% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +37 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.

CBJ winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).