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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 28, 2009·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

New York Rangers 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 8

Away

New York Rangers

3

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

8

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 83% of the time.

PIT winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYR1131616325
PIT31617410833

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:50NYRMarc StaalAssists: Chris Drury, Ales Kotalik · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:37PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bill Guerin · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
  3. P1 17:43PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P1 18:29PITMax TalbotAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–3
  5. P2 14:33NYRMatt GilroyAssists: Vinny Prospal, Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
  6. P2 19:59PITMark EatonGWGAssists: Craig Adams, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
  7. P3 0:33NYRMichal RozsivalAssists: Marian Gaborik, Sean Avery · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
  8. P3 3:14PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
  9. P3 7:20PITPascal DupuisAssists: Brooks Orpik, Sergei Gonchar · Slap, 0.02 xG3–6
  10. P3 11:29PITSidney CrosbyPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–7
  11. P3 11:54PITTyler KennedyPPAssists: Kris Letang, Ruslan Fedotenko · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–8
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 0:37PITMark Eaton: Holding the stick2 min
  2. P1 4:42NYRSean Avery: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  3. P2 0:17PITBill Guerin: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 7:47NYRVinny Prospal: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 16:47NYRMichael Del Zotto: Slashing2 min
  6. P3 7:39PITMatt Cooke: Interference2 min
  7. P3 10:16NYRDonald Brashear: Roughing2 min · PPG
  8. P3 10:16NYRDonald Brashear: Roughing2 min · PPG
  9. P3 12:02NYRRyan Callahan: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 12:02PITMatt Cooke: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 12:02NYRRyan Callahan: Misconduct10 min
  12. P3 12:02PITMatt Cooke: Misconduct10 min
  13. P3 13:46NYRSean Avery: Instigator2 min
  14. P3 13:46NYRSean Avery: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 13:46NYRSean Avery: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Drury won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRPIT
25Shots on goal33
1.7Expected goals3.8
41Shot attempts59
20Faceoffs won34
3Power plays7
42Penalty minutes21
31Hits29
13Blocked shots11
4Giveaways6
5Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 3.8 xGNYR 1.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 76/100 · #257 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.50 · 9 goals in reachComeback index 38% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 83% of the time.

PIT winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).