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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 28, 2009·Pepsi Center, Denver

Minnesota Wild 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (SO)

Away

Minnesota Wild

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Colorado Avalanche

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.

COL winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
MIN01211418022336
COL2903010000222

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:22COLMatt HendricksAssists: Chris Durno, Adam Foote · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:40COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Paul Stastny, Wojtek Wolski · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P2 0:57MINEric BelangerUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P3 11:14MINGuillaume LatendresseAssists: Owen Nolan, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. COL Marek Svatos stopped
  2. 2. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
  3. 3. COL Wojtek Wolski stopped
  4. 4. MIN Andrew Ebbett scored
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 2:23COLDavid Koci: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:23MINJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 16:41MINKyle Brodziak: Interference2 min · PPG
  4. P2 5:27COLJohn-Michael Liles: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 15:24COLAdam Foote: Interference2 min
  6. P2 17:32COLAdam Foote: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  7. P3 16:58COLPaul Stastny: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Stastny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINCOL
36Shots on goal22
2.4Expected goals1.8
66Shot attempts35
30Faceoffs won21
4Power plays1
7Penalty minutes13
13Hits24
8Blocked shots17
7Giveaways5
9Takeaways17

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 1.8 xGMIN 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 71/100 · #331 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.70 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 15% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.

COL winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).