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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 28, 2009·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Edmonton Oilers 3, Vancouver Canucks 7

Away

Edmonton Oilers

3

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.

VAN winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM14213017334
VAN51619110735

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:16VANChristian EhrhoffPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 5:01VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
  3. P1 7:04VANMason RaymondPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
  4. P1 8:25VANDaniel SedinGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Willie Mitchell · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–4
  5. P1 14:44EDMGilbert BrulePPAssists: Sam Gagner, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–4
  6. P1 19:43VANTanner GlassAssists: Steve Bernier · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–5
  7. P2 6:06EDMColin McDonaldAssists: Ryan O'Marra · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–5
  8. P2 7:10EDMDustin PennerPPAssists: Gilbert Brule, Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.07 xG3–5
  9. P2 12:08VANAlexander EdlerPPAssists: Mason Raymond, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–6
  10. P3 9:59VANMikael SamuelssonPPAssists: Mason Raymond, Alexander Edler · Slap, 0.03 xG3–7
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 1:42EDMDustin Penner: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 4:52EDMJason Strudwick: Fighting5 min · PPG
  3. P1 4:52VANDarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 5:57EDMJeff Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 10:59EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 10:59VANRyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
  7. P1 14:24VANRyan Johnson: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P2 6:48VANMikael Samuelsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
  9. P2 11:29EDMGilbert Brule: Interference2 min · PPG
  10. P2 13:27VANAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
  11. P2 19:31EDMEthan Moreau: Interference2 min
  12. P2 19:31VANWillie Mitchell: Roughing2 min
  13. P2 19:31VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 6:26EDMEthan Moreau: High sticking2 min
  15. P3 8:44EDMShawn Horcoff: Slashing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Kesler
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMVAN
34Shots on goal35
2.3Expected goals2.2
56Shot attempts56
30Faceoffs won31
4Power plays5
19Penalty minutes17
20Hits12
14Blocked shots13
7Giveaways13
4Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.2 xGEDM 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 68/100 · #372 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.77 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.

VAN winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).