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Ice Lab

Sun, Nov 29, 2009·General Motors Place, Vancouver

San Jose Sharks 4, Vancouver Canucks 2

Away

San Jose Sharks

4

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.

VAN winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS1711528430
VAN11004113227

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:59VANKyle WellwoodAssists: Steve Bernier, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:18SJSFrazer McLarenAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
  3. P2 6:15SJSDan BoylePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Kent Huskins · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–1
  4. P3 17:25SJSManny MalhotraGWGAssists: Ryane Clowe, Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–1
  5. P3 17:38SJSJamie McGinnAssists: Jed Ortmeyer · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–1
  6. P3 19:53VANJannik HansenAssists: Kyle Wellwood · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 8:01SJSEvgeni Nabokov: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 12:45SJSRob Blake: Kneeing2 min
  3. P1 16:39VANDarcy Hordichuk: Interference2 min
  4. P2 0:22VANMikael Samuelsson: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 5:09VANAlexander Edler: Hooking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 7:27VANDaniel Sedin: Holding2 min
  7. P2 13:16SJSJamie McGinn: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 6:43SJSRyane Clowe: Interference2 min
  9. P3 13:22VANAlexandre Burrows: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Kesler
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSVAN
30Shots on goal27
2.2Expected goals1.9
52Shot attempts46
33Faceoffs won24
5Power plays4
8Penalty minutes10
16Hits14
6Blocked shots11
3Giveaways8
8Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 1.9 xGSJS 2.2 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 44/100 · #689 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.17 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 28% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.

VAN winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).