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Ice Lab

Mon, Nov 30, 2009·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Buffalo Sabres 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 0

Away

Buffalo Sabres

3

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.

TOR winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF010110211331
TOR012016010038

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 13:07BUFTim KennedyGWGAssists: Andrej Sekera, Mike Grier · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
  2. P3 0:20BUFHenrik TallinderAssists: Derek Roy, Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
  3. P3 10:59BUFJochen HechtAssists: Jason Pominville, Steve Montador · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 2:51BUFNathan Paetsch: Roughing2 min
  2. P2 0:16TORPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 1:34BUFTim Connolly: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 10:36BUFSteve Montador: Boarding2 min
  5. P2 13:13TORJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 13:13BUFSteve Montador: Fighting5 min
  7. P3 4:27BUFTim Kennedy: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 11:34TORIan White: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Primeau
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFTOR
31Shots on goal38
3.6Expected goals4.0
64Shot attempts79
27Faceoffs won23
2Power plays4
13Penalty minutes9
23Hits25
19Blocked shots13
7Giveaways13
7Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 4.0 xGBUF 3.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 9/100 · #1116 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.74 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.

TOR winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).