Mon, Nov 30, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 26 | 111 | 016 | 333 |
| CAR | 116 | 012 | 111 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:35CARJoe CorvoPPAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Eric Staal · Backhand, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 6:11WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Alexandre Giroux · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 17:20WSHEric FehrAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 14:53WSHNicklas BackstromGWGAssists: Eric Fehr · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 19:44CARMatt CullenAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:59WSHMathieu Perreault: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:05WSHAlex Ovechkin: Kneeing5 min
- P1 12:05WSHAlex Ovechkin: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 4:06WSHBrooks Laich: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:50WSHTomas Fleischmann: Interference2 min
- P2 7:56CARSergei Samsonov: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:45CARTom Kostopoulos: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:51CARAndrew Alberts: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:22WSHNicklas Backstrom: Interference2 min
- P3 6:36CARTim Gleason: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:57WSHEric Fehr: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:58CARAndrew Alberts: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:25WSHTyler Sloan: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:25CAREric Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:25CARTim Gleason: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:21WSHEric Fehr: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Morrison won the faceoff against Cullen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).